Range Based Trading ahead

Historical volatility in No.2 futures contracts since 2012 has been about 36% annualized, but we have seen a sharp decline in volatility since 2015, over which time it has averaged about 15%. Certainly as with any market, and with commodities in particular, the risk of large and sudden swings in volatility is present, but the period of relative calm also presents a window of opportunity. Since the spike in August trading has been relatively range bound, and I predict this will continue until the spring data and projection releases beginning in March. The No.2 futures contract began a slight correction several days ago, but somewhere around 71-71.5 should present an attractive entry point for the next several weeks. Look for a subsequent exit point just below 75.

chart-4

No.2 futures price and projection

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